An Evergreen Preview of the 2024 Presidential Election
A clash between our shared democracy and Donald Trump's dark unreality.
“Wake up! Wake up! You’ve got free will again, and there’s work to do!” – Kilgore Trout
This week, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will participate in the earliest presidential debate in American history. Despite being well-known and well-defined, each candidate is looking to move the needle during their first direct confrontation since October 2020. Today, the mainstream media frames the election as virtually tied, with Trump maintaining a slight polling advantage that has narrowed since Biden’s State of the Union and Trump’s 34 felony convictions. By plainly presenting the facts of our present moment, we can compile a brief and evergreen preview of the 2024 presidential election.
In offering my professional prognostication, the reader should know that I’m not particularly interested in opinion polls or media conjecture, especially at this stage, but rather the reality of what we’ll see throughout the campaign season, starting with the first debate and through Election Day. My positionality is that of a patriot, who still foolishly believes in the American experiment and naively trusts the public to see Trump’s overt abdication of American democracy for what it is: treason.
In the first debate, and throughout this election, we’re going to see a clash between two presidents who disagree entirely on the role of government in a modern democracy: one who believes in progress through leadership and legislation, and another who believes in retribution through revenge and violence. This Thursday, we’ll see a patriotic president filled with righteous indignation directly confront a hate-filled conman, who is rarely confronted, and who openly called for the suspension of the Constitution.
Despite the clear contrast in character, the media has maintained its business-as-usual approach, failing to clearly articulate the significant sunlight between these candidates. Rather than providing voters with clear reporting and important facts to make an informed decision, the media instead reports on how people feel about the election and what they think will happen, while at the same time ignoring their active role in shaping the public discourse which informs those thoughts and feelings. Given the media’s ongoing neglect in this regard, the defense of democracy once again falls to us: average American Citizens prepared to deliver a clear pro-democracy mandate in November’s election.
Donald Trump largely exists in an unreality, protected by an artificial ecosystem which projects confidence and power to maintain a positive public facade. In most cases, the mainstream media willfully accepts and advances this unreality, ignoring the treason and mob violence enabled by Trump and the MAGA movement. Rather than rising to the occasion and fulfilling their important role as the nation’s Fourth Estate, the media remains focused on the Horserace™ to drive their Clicks and Views, profiting along the way, while attempting to conceal their complicity in Trump’s initial rise and continued presence in our society. In November, it will be our responsibility to repair their abject failure.
With few exceptions, the establishment press has assumed the pathetic role of political doormat, advancing conservative propaganda and neoliberal complacency without question, throwing the country into a kind of numb nihilism. This nihilism is central to MAGA’s approach to politics: suppress political participation and voter turnout by projecting an image of inevitable chaos and division. Despite Donald Trump’s clear criminality and our collective ability to stop him through the simple act of voting, these nefarious forces want us to believe, without question or consideration, that we’re powerless to make the country a better place.
Meanwhile, back in our shared reality, Donald Trump is weak and afraid: he’s a twice-impeached convicted felon facing additional trials for his presidential crime spree, including an attempt to overthrow the government and, when that failed, stealing and concealing classified documents for God knows what reason. There’s nothing normal about our present moment—every alarm bell is sounding—and yet, we’re meant to believe Trump is well-positioned to reclaim the presidency. Why, exactly, should we accept this bizarre narrative at face value?
I’m not suggesting Trump can’t win in November. He won in 2016, though notably lost the popular vote, and he can certainly win again. And yes, even if he loses, it seems likely he’ll claim victory regardless, and perhaps encourage his cult to take up arms for a second time. While this is a real possibility which must be acknowledged, it’s also the pessimistic vision Trump and his enablers hope to advance in perpetuity: no matter what happens—win or lose—Trump, chaos, and division are all inevitable. If we blindly accept this perspective, and allow the numbness to prevail, it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Instead, we must embrace an optimistic view of the 2024 election: we need to trust that, when presented with clear facts and quality information, more Americans than not will ultimately make the patriotic and self-preserving choice. We need to begin to imagine the possibility of a clear progressive and pro-democracy mandate: that Joe Biden can win reelection by a solid margin, and Democrats can reclaim control of the House and maintain control of the Senate.
In his first term, despite polarization and an evenly split Senate, Biden achieved historic legislative accomplishments and led his party through a strong midterm performance, warning voters of threats to our democracy and civil liberties, naming Republican extremism as the cause of that reversion. By no means is a pro-democracy mandate inevitable, but it’s also not impossible. President Biden, trusting his instincts, has long believed in such a possibility while clearly stating threats we face.
During the 2020 presidential debates, it was Joe Biden who directly named the Proud Boys when Trump was asked to disavow white supremacists. Instead of disavowing the violent hate group, Trump proclaimed: “Proud Boys: Stand back and stand by.” This rallying cry was heard by his most violent supporters, who saw an increase in recruitment and, three months later, stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overthrow the government. Four leaders of the Proud Boys have since been convicted of seditious conspiracy against the United States for their role in the January 6th insurrection. At his inauguration two weeks later, President Biden declared white supremacy, by name, as an active threat to our democracy—a threat, he said, which must be defeated.
It’s time for American Citizens to wake up and confront this threat with clarity. It’s time for us to exercise the incredible power our Citizenship grants us. Collectively, we can shape the future of this country. But our power only exists as long as we protect it. In this election, one candidate demands we use this power to defend our right to self-determination, while the other demands we place this power in his hands alone. The contrast between these two men couldn’t be more clear, but the longer we ignore this clear contrast, the more difficult it will be to deprogram those presently hypnotized by an endless appetite for anger and grievance propagated by a wannabe dictator and the dark forces enabling him. To wake Americans up, we must speak plainly.
Thursday’s debate, with perhaps one or two exceptions, will be largely forgotten in a month, when Trump will have been sentenced for his first batch of felonies and the Republican National Convention will have taken place. Then, we’ll be heading into the Democratic National Convention and soon enough the September debates. At each stage, the news-you-can’t-believe will be quickly replaced, and this cycle will repeat itself after every major political event or headline until the election concludes. At each stage, and particularly during the debates, Joe Biden will have an opportunity to remind the American people of his optimistic vision for the country while making clear the significant threat posed by Trump and the MAGA movement. Meanwhile, Trump will be tasked with convincing Americans to accept, without critical reflection, a dark and desolate unreality where he is a victim rather than a traitor.
Barring an unpredictable development, the context of this election has largely been written. The contrast is clear and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Only one question remains: will Donald Trump’s warped reality prevail, or will we defend American democracy at the ballot box?
Binghamton, NY
June 2024
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